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Cash Flow Management
Cash. Most people want more. When running a small business it's particularly important to monitor how cash is coming in and how much cash is going out. This month, I'd like to take a few minutes to share some ideas on cash flow management as in...

Customer Service and Call Center Outsourcing, What's The Buzz?
The buzz is all about customer service and call center outsourcing, also known as BPO (Business Process Outsourcing). According to Gartner, the outsourcing market in Europe has grown with over 6%, BPO with 10%. The market for offshore...

Industry Pro Interview: Expanding Your Market Reach For More Sales
© Karon Thackston 2002 http://www.ktamarketing.com Have you ever wondered how to get out of a “sales slump”? I think all of us have! One of the most common things we, as small business owners, allow ourselves to suffer through is “narrow...

Part 5 of 5 - How "Pipe Dreams" Can Become Realities!
Take a look at yourself - inside and out. Where do you live, what job do you have, how do you relate to your friends and family? What interests do you pursue, what adventures do you have? What do you truly want from life? Do you want...

Stop Waste, Fraud and Abuse
Each year, businesses write-off six percent of revenue to waste, fraud and abuse. But why would managers throw all that hard-earned money away when there is a reliable way to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse using accounting policies &...

 
Bankers in Denial


Denial is a ubiquitous psychological defense mechanism. It involves the repression of bad news, unpleasant information, and anxiety-inducing experiences. Judging by the German press, the country is in a state of denial regarding the waning health of its economy and the dwindling fortunes of its financial system.

Commerzbank, Germany's fourth largest lender, saw its shares decimated by more than 80 percent to a 19-year low, having increased its loan-loss provisions to cover flood-submerged east German debts. Faced with a precipitous drop in net profit, it reacted reflexively by sacking yet more staff. The shares of many other German banks trade below book value.

Dresdner Bank - Germany's third largest private establishment - already trimmed an unprecedented one fifth of its workforce this year alone. Other leading German banks - such as Deutsche Bank and Hypovereinsbank - resorted to panic selling of equity portfolios, real-estate, non-core activities, and securitized assets to patch up their ailing income statements. Deutsche Bank, for instance, unloaded its US leasing and custody businesses.

On September 19, Moody's changed its outlook for Germany's largest banks from "stable" to "negative". In a scathing remark, it said:

"The rating agency stated several times already that current difficult economic conditions that are hurting the banking business in Germany come on top of the legacy of past strategies that were less focused on strengthening the banks' recurring earning power. Indeed, the German private-sector banks, as a group, remain among the lowest-performing large European banks."

Last week, Fitch Ratings, the international agency, followed suit and downgraded the long-term , short- term, and individual ratings of Dresdner Bank and of Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank (HVB).

These were only the last in a series of negative outlooks pertaining to German insurers and banks. It is ironic that Fitch cited the "bear equity markets (that) have taken their toll not only on trading results but also on sales to private customers, the fund management business and on corporate finance."

Germans used to be immune to the stock exchange and its lures until they were caught in the frenzied global equities bubble. Moody's observes wryly that "a material and stable retail franchise in its home market, even if more modestly profitable, can and does represent a reliable line of defence against temporary difficulties in financial and wholesale markets."

The technology-laden and scandal-ridden Neuer Markt - Europe's answer to America's NASDAQ - as well as the SMAX exchange for small-caps were shut down last week, the former having lost a staggering 96 percent of its value since March 2000. This compared to Britain's AIM, which lost "only" half its worth. Even Britain's infamous FTSE-TechMARK faded by a "mere" 88 percent.

Only 1 company floated on the Neuer Markt this year - compared to more than 130 two years ago. In an unprecedented show of "no-confidence", more than 40 companies withdrew their listings last year. The Duetsche Boerse promised to create two new classes of shares on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It belatedly vowed to introduce more transparency and openness to foreign investors.

Banks have been accused by irate customers of helping to list inappropriate firms and providing fraudulent advisory services. Court cases are pending against the likes of Commerzbank. These proceedings may dash the bank's hopes to move from retail into private banking.

To further compound matters, Germany is in the throes of a tsunami of corporate insolvencies. This long-overdue restructuring, though beneficial in the long run, couldn't have transpired at a worse time, as far as the banks go. Massive provisions and write-downs have voraciously consumed their capital base even as operating profits have plummeted. This double whammy more than eroded the benefits of their painful cost-cutting measures.

German banks - not unlike Japanese ones - maintain incestuous relationships with their clients. When it finally collapsed in April, Philip Holzmann AG owed billions to Deutsche Bank with whom it had a cordial working relationship for more than a century. But the bank also owned 19.6 percent of the ailing construction behemoth and chaired its supervisory board - the relics of previous shambolic rescue packages.

Germany competes with Austria in over-branching, with Japan in souring assets, and with Russia in overhead. According to the German daily, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the cost to income ratio of German banks is 90 percent. Mass bankruptcies and consolidation - voluntary or enforced - are unavoidable, especially in the cooperative, mortgage, and savings banks sectors, concludes the paper. The process is a decade-old. More than 1500 banks vanished from the German landscape in this period. Another 2500 remain making Germany still one of the most over-banked countries in the world.

Moody's don't put much stock in the cost-cutting measures of the German banks. Added competition and a "more realistic pricing" of loans and services are far more important to their shriveling bottom line. But "that light is not yet visible at the end of the tunnel ... and challenging market conditions are likely to persist for the time being."

The woeful state of Germany's financial


system reflects not only Germany's economic malaise - "The Economist" called it the "sick man" of Europe - but its failed attempt to imitate and emulate the inimitable financial centers of London and New-York. It is a rebuke to the misguided belief that capitalistic models - and institutions - can be transplanted in their entirety across cultural barriers. It is incontrovertible proof that history - and the core competencies it spawns - still matter.

When German insurers and banks, for instance, branched into faddish businesses - such as the Internet and mobile telephony - they did so in vacuum. Germany has few venture capitalists and American-style entrepreneurs. This misguided strategy resulted in a frightening erosion of the strength and capital base of the intrepid investors.

In a sense, Germany - and definitely its eastern Lander - is a country in transition. Risk-aversion is giving way to risk-seeking in the forms of investments in equities and derivatives and venture capital. Family ownership is gradually supplanted by stock exchange listings, imported management, and mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers - both friendly and hostile. The social contracts regarding employment, pensions, the role of the trade unions, the balance between human and pecuniary capital, and the carving up of monopoly market niches - are being re-written.

Global integration means that, as sovereignty is transferred to supranational entities, the cozy relationship between the banks and the German government on all levels is over. Last October, Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, announced OECD-inspired anti-money laundering measures that are likely to compromise bank secrecy and client anonymity and, thus, hurt the German - sometimes murky - banking business. Erstwhile rampant government intervention is now mitigated or outright prohibited by the European Union.

Thus, German Laender are forced, by the European Commission, to partly abolish, three years hence, their guarantees to the Landesbanken (regional development banks) and Sparkassen (thrifts). German diversification to Austria and central and east Europe will provide only temporary respite. As the EU enlarges and digests, at the very least, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 2004-5 - German franchises there will come under the uncompromising remit of the Commission once more.

In general, Germans fared worse than Austrians in their extraterritorial banking ventures. Less cosmopolitan, with less exposure to the parts of the former Habsburg Empire, and struggling with a stagnant domestic economy - German banks found it difficult to turn central European banks around as successfully as the likes of the Austrian Erste Bank did. They did make inroads into niche structured financing markets in north Europe and the USA - but these seem to be random excursions rather a studied shift of business emphasis.

On the bright side, Moody's - though it maintains a negative outlook on German banking - noted, in November 2001, the banks' "intrinsic financial strength and diversified operating base". Tax reform and the hesitant introduction of private pensions are also cause for restrained optimism.

Pursuant to the purchase of Drsedner Bank by Allianz, Moody's welcome the emergence of bancassurance and Allfinanz models - financial services one stop shops. German banks are also positioned to reap the benefits of their considerable investments in e-commerce, technology, and the restructuring of their branch networks.

The Depression on 1929-1936 may have started with the meltdown of capital markets, especially that of Wall Street - but it was exacerbated by the collapse of the concatenated international banking system. The world today is even more integrated. The collapse of one or more major German banks can result in dire consequences and not only in the euro zone. The IMF says as much in its "World Economic Outlook" published on September 25.

The Germans deny this prognosis - and the diagnosis - vehemently. Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke - a board member of the European Central Bank - spent the better part of last week implausibly denying any crisis in German banking. These are mere "structural problems in the weak phase", he told a press conference. Nothing consolidation can't solve.

It is this consistent refusal to confront reality that is the most worrisome. In the short to medium term, German banks are likely to outlive the storm. In the process, they will lose their iron grip on the domestic market as customer loyalty dissipates and foreign competition increases. If they do not confront their plight with honesty and open-mindedness, they may well be reduced to glorified back-office extensions of the global giants.

Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com


palma@unet.com.mk


 

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Content Menu
  • 10 critical questions to ask before hiring a consultant

  • 10 lessons for every shoestring entrepreneur

  • 10 profit boosting tips to increase the success of your affiliate program

  • 10 reasons why companies should start doing business online

  • 10 ways for entrepreneurs to find more time

  • 11 secrets to leadership in sales

  • 11 ways to elevate your sales

  • 3 steps to turning ok sales into unbelieveable results

  • 5 tips for savvy use of your home equity line of credit

  • 6 steps to laying out your competitive strategy

  • 7 explosive strategies to maximize your google adwords campaigns

  • 7 tips for product enhancement to increase your sales

  • 8 procedures to take control of sales and marketing

  • alarming marketing trend

  • are you still broke with 10 000 people in your downline

  • army ranger reveals how to control corporate stress

  • assumptions the hidden sales killer

  • astute pricing by sales representatives can expand profit

  • a new look for business in the future

  • a power technique for boosting sales

  • a profitable growth formula for sales managers

  • a real crm strategy or just tracking customers

  • bankers in denial

  • black belt sales meeting moves

  • book summary the e myth revisited

  • boost profits dramatically with consignment sales

  • boost your business sales with credit card payment solutions

  • building an email marketing list

  • businesses should specialise not generalise

  • business after the iraqi war

  • can a sales leaseback arrangement make investing in orlando investment more safe and reliable

  • cash flow management

  • cash flow profits and the cash conversion cycle

  • celebrating successes the power of compliments

  • characteristics of high performance teams

  • coaching for success

  • commodity sales prospecting ‹¨« how to stand out from your competitors

  • communicating value

  • conducting business through b2b e marketplaces

  • confessions of a reluctant saleswoman

  • create a positive upbeat can do workforce and dazzle the customer with your caring

  • creating your internet marketing plan

  • crm for beginners customer relationship management basics

  • crm sfa that accelerates sales the sales process integration approach

  • customer service and call center outsourcing whats the buzz

  • dialogue the four dialogic principles for successful communication

  • does your business need a toll free 800 number

  • doing business online private b2b exchanges

  • domain name and web hosting hell

  • dont shoot the sales team

  • do you feel overwhelmed running a web business try this

  • do you have a picture of your customer

  • do you need a personal assistant

  • easily slash your comms costs using web conferencing

  • education and outsourcing 2 ways to improve your business

  • einstein definition of insanity

  • entrepreneurship what does it really mean

  • financial services marketing insights a marketing compass

  • finding rest for the direct sales company mom

  • first the key to successful sales

  • five dirt cheap ways to increase sales in your cleaning business

  • five strategies to strengthen your companys financial management

  • five tips for analyzing an income statement

  • five top tips for a prosperous 2004

  • forecasting and surviving a layoff or downsizing

  • gaining business intelligence

  • get coached

  • good bye bobby knight and all the sales managers like you

  • grants loans free credit cards and credit repair the whole truth and nothing but the truth

  • hiring and retaining good employees

  • hiring the best sales athletes

  • how to beat the 80 20 rule in sales performance part 1

  • how to beat the 80 20 rule in sales performance part 2

  • how to build a repeat client base in automobile sales

  • how to create multiple revenue streams for your home business

  • how to create your own successful and profitable affiliate program

  • how to cut duty cost and increase profit as an importer

  • how to decrease profits without really trying

  • how to define your companys sales job part 1

  • how to define your companys sales job part 2

  • how to easily increase your profits

  • how to enhance quality in your business

  • how to find an investment advisor

  • how to get money back for your process and procedures investments

  • how to get rich with network marketing

  • how to identify a problem solver

  • how to improve your management procedures usability

  • how to increase sales with automation improvements

  • how to join the 5 of internet business real money making pros regardless of the products you sell

  • how to maximize account penetration and jump start sales

  • how to maximize sales by minimizing windshield time

  • how to meet quality standards with iso 9001

  • how to promote your home business with ebooks

  • how to start a business plan

  • how you can learn to be a better manager

  • hunters and gatherers are you serving both their needs

  • hurdles to cross cultural business communication

  • if it was easy everybody would do it

  • if one does not do any planning one is planning to fail

  • increase sales in your home business with these 10 simple ideas

  • increase your income through international trade

  • increase your influence increase your sales

  • increase your pipeline deploying the cost effective sales team

  • increase your sales by 30 using internet collaboration networks

  • increasing sales with customer interaction points

  • index

  • industry pro interview expanding your market reach for more sales

  • internet marketing vs forex currency trading

  • introducing a mystery shopping program employees

  • investors avoid these 5 common tax mistakes

  • iso 9001 compliant program steps to build

  • is it time to hit the reset button on your sales department

  • is your business profitable

  • is your company growing fast enough for you

  • keeping your sales team motivated

  • leadership lessons for sales managers

  • leveraging open source technology

  • like it or notyoure in sales

  • lone wolf lead wolf

  • looking for a direct sales party plan company do you know what questions to ask

  • making sales online is easy isnt it

  • making sales online is easy isn t it

  • managing your business cash flow

  • maximize your home based business website sales

  • menu driven business planning

  • money management

  • multiply your sales

  • networking 101

  • network marketing book lovers guide 10 hot reads in 2005

  • no degree no problem

  • online success

  • only the weak ones quit

  • organization tips how to set up your database

  • outsourcing not just for big business

  • overcoming barriers to sales

  • overcoming sales objections for small business networks

  • overcoming small business networks sales objections

  • part 1 of 5 how pipe dreams can become realities

  • part 1 of 5 on the home business set up guide

  • part 2 of 5 how pipe dreams can become realities

  • part 2 of 5 on the home business set up guide

  • part 3 of 5 how pipe dreams can become realities

  • part 4 of 5 how pipe dreams can become realities

  • part 5 of 5 how pipe dreams can become realities

  • paypal dedication can leave your business exposed

  • phone interviews prepare to ace them

  • phone tips to get things done professional phone skills

  • planning to make a decision

  • ppc management when to give up on a loser

  • profitable growth is everyones business a book summary

  • properties for sale in cyprus please visit www propertyincyprus com

  • pr where it matters most

  • public relations defining your organization from the inside out

  • results of poor cross cultural awareness

  • riding the sales rollercoaster

  • rotator

  • rý eoc recruitment and retention employer of choice

  • sales 201 learning tools of your trade

  • sales activity report for management

  • sales and marketing terminology

  • sales and the importance of following up

  • sales commission what return should you expect on your sales compensation investment

  • sales leads how to generate quality sales leads through public speaking

  • sales lessons from the election

  • sales partners agents distributors licensing and franchises

  • sales performance and motivation how to get your edge back

  • sales planning

  • sales process how to avoid wasting time on prospects who cant or wont pay

  • sales process the secret to closing more sales

  • sales process what can you automate

  • sales success the 5 steps

  • sales territory management how to prioritize your activities to produce maximum results

  • securing second and third round venture capital financing

  • selecting sales tracking software for your small business

  • selling is easy when youre first fast and foremost

  • selling sales to customer service agents

  • seven cs to avoid procedure writing errors

  • short messaging service sms for enterprise messaging

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  • six components of a good e commerce site

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  • stop being a salesperson

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  • strategic planning for salespeople

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  • survival tips for small businesses

  • swot analysis

  • telesales success begin with the end in mind

  • the 11 secrets to sales leadership

  • the biggest mistake in sales prospecting

  • the challenges of human resource management

  • the death of the loyal customer

  • the diamond cutter

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  • the key to high volume web sales

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  • the new ways to do the business mba or cio

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  • the six most common barriers to sales success

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  • the three most common mistakes sales managers make

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  • the traits of great sales leaders

  • the world has changed what is a sales professional to do

  • this old business

  • thoughtleading the art of separating yourself from the pack

  • trade show tactics revealed

  • transform yourself from a salesperson into a businessperson

  • understanding ezine publishing

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  • using the internet automation as tools for salespeople

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  • web conferencing a boon to businesss

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  • which of these 7 mistakes are you making in mlm

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  • will your home business succeed or fail

  • work at home business ideas

  • work from home 5 required steps to generate sales

  • work priorities where can you spend your time most effectively

  • yesterdays hero