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Avoiding Double Taxation
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Investors Chasing Uranium Mining Stocks, Again: A Favorite Emerges
Fifty years ago, uranium fever hit Wall Street. It was then just
a few years after a Navajo shepherd in New Mexico, by the name
of Paddy Martinez, discovered "yellow rocks" on his property,
mistaking them at first for gold. An avalanche of 1950s dollars
(more valuable than the ones we have today) poured into mutual
funds and uranium mining stocks, sending their values to
astronomical levels. Get ready for déjà vu all over again, as
Yogi Berra once said. Trend spotter, James Dines, editor of The
Dines Letter, believes uranium mining stocks could become just
as hot, or hotter, than the Internet stocks of the 1990s.
(Editor's note: StockInterview.com interviewed James Dines on
July 20, 2004, when he forecast a "buying panic in uranium."
Since then, spot uranium (U3 08) prices have nearly doubled.
Over the past 35 years, Dines has successfully predicted mega
trends in gold, internet, palladium and uranium price
movements). And now investors are chasing uranium mining stocks
again.
A look at industry leader, Cameco (NYSE: CCJ), which money
manager Robert Mitchell called the "Saudi Arabia of uranium,"
shows a three-year gain of more than 700 percent. Over the past
few years, Australian-traded Paladin Resources, skyrocketed from
under a dime to over $2/share (A$). A recent Forbes magazine
cover story, entitled Going Nuclear, analyzed uranium's recent
price surge, "One reason the price of uranium should keep
escalating is that producers are only starting to ramp up to
meet the strong demand. Utilities globally need 180 million
pounds of uranium annually, but at this point a mere 108 million
pounds are coming out of the ground."
Why the sudden jump? A Morgan Stanley institutional report,
published in December 2004, explained that through the 1990s,
uranium oxide prices stayed low because surplus uranium came
into the market from weapons decommissioning. That surplus
inventory worked its way through the market. The Morgan Stanley
analyst forecast a "deep supply-side shortage" of uranium,
citing that new mining production hasn't yet come online to
remedy the deficit. In the year-ago forecast, the uranium
deficit was expected to grow to nearly 20 million pounds this
year (from a surplus of 6 million pounds in 2003), and then leap
to a peak deficit of more than 35 million pounds in 2006.
Deficits in excess of 30 million pounds were also anticipated
for 2007 and 2008. According to the Morgan Stanley analyst,
$50/pound may be possible in the spot price for uranium oxide,
known in the trade as "yellowcake."
Mining Newsletters Favor Strathmore Minerals
What's that mean for uranium stocks? Higher prices should be
anticipated as more investors, mutual funds and hedge funds
search out the best returns. While the lion's share of
investment dollars is likely to chase Cameco's price higher, the
robust percentage gains in that stock may have already peaked.
Generally, new money searches for well-capitalized junior mining
stocks with solid uranium projects in their portfolio. One of
those most frequently recommended among mining newsletter
writers is Strathmore Minerals Corp, trading on the Toronto
Venture Exchange (ticker symbol STM.V). Prominent among
Strathmore's projects are in-situ leach mining operations
proposed for Wyoming and New Mexico, plus an aggressive
exploration program in the world's richest uranium areas,
Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin (home to uranium mining giant,
Cameco).
In September, letter writer Lawrence Roulston of Resource
Opportunities recommended Canadian-based Strathmore Minerals
(TSX-V: STM), writing, "The company is systematically adding
value to the projects most likely to be significant in the near
term, especially those with near-term production potential."
Also in September, Resource World contributing editor, Alf
Stewart, wrote, "The two deposits Strathmore is developing were
'cherry picked' from the inventory of Kerr McGee, largest
private explorer of uranium prior to that industry grinding to a
halt in the early 1980s. As these properties are largely drilled
off, Strathmore may be considered more of a uranium development
company than an explorer." This past June, money manager Adrian
Day recommended uranium stocks in his research report, writing,
"So I am focusing on four main areas in uranium, with one or two
buys in each... top exploration companies that have the goods
and are likely to bring properties into production. Strathmore
Minerals, with technically strong management, lots of
properties, and a strong balance sheet, is arguably the best."
New Uranium Discovery in the Athabasca Basin?
Here's one of the stronger reasons why investors might
anticipate a strong rally in Strathmore's share price over the
coming twelve months: In a November 16th news release (http
://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051116/20051116005591.html?.v=1),
Strathmore Minerals announced a discrete conductor, more than 30
miles long, after completing an airborne geophysical survey on
the company's Davy Lake property, in the north central portion
of the Athabasca
Basin. According to the company's news release,
"The conductor's profile response indicates a deep and in
places, broad source."
Virtually all the significant unconformity uranium deposits
known in the Athabasca Basin are directly associated with fault
structures associated with graphitic conductors. Deposits such
as Key Lake, Cigar Lake and McArthur River were found by
drilling electromagnetic conductors located within magnetic
lows.
In an interview with Jody Dahrouge, of Edmonton-based Dahrouge
Geological Consulting Ltd, he told StockInterview.com, "Early
indications are that this conductor is similar with other known
uranium deposits, graphitic conductors with magnetic lows." On a
scale of one to ten, Dahrouge rated the Davy Lake conductor a
ten. "It is a long conductor, cut by structures, with deep depth
and associated by a late fault," explained Dahrouge. "It is a
high quality conductor that continues to depth, and it is
typical of those occurring that are associated with known
uranium deposits." Dahrouge described how the MegaTem II
airborne geophysical survey was able to pinpoint the conductor
as shallow as 600 meters and running deep to 1200 meters.
Dahrouge made comparisons to other uranium deposits in the
Athabasca Basin. "The Sue Deposit near McLean Lake is associated
with an electromagnetic conductor that is approximately 2.6
kilometers long," he said. "Based on our work at Waterbury Lake,
we identified an 8 kilometers long conductor associated with the
Midwest Deposit(s). The 'P2' conductor at McArthur River is
approximately 13 kilometers long. This feature was first
identified in 1984, by a ground Deep EM Survey. The Shea Creek
deposits, located south of Cluff Lake, are associated with an
approximately 25 kilometers long conductor, known as the
Saskatoon Lake Conductor." Dahrouge added, "These deposits are
located at depths similar to what we expect at Davy Lake."
What is probably most significant is Strathmore's gamble, by
exploring away from the eastern parts of the Athabasca Basin,
some 300 kilometers from the eastern Athabasca Basin, where the
major discoveries have been made. "It was virtually unexplored,"
Dahrouge said with excitement in his voice. "It's really virgin
ground." While there is ample evidence suggesting multiple
uranium deposits in the Athabasca Basin, other junior
exploration companies are looking at the shallow parts of the
eastern basin, which may not likely yield economic uranium ore.
One pundit acidly questioned some of the current exploration
activity in the Athabasca region, "Are they really re-flying old
ground that's already been flown a hundred times, or are they
just releasing old data to save money?" Dahrouge pointed out
that the uranium appears to be running deeper for many of the
newer discoveries, as he believes the Davy Lake property might
hold true for Strathmore Minerals in the north central part of
the Athabasca Basin.
Important features in many Athabascan uranium deposits are the
cross-cutting fault zones. Dahrouge confirmed the Davy Lake
conductor has cross-cutting fault zones with a sinistral
(left-sided) fault about halfway along its length. According to
Dahrouge, there is also a "conductor extension which crosses the
fault from west to east and 'flows' out into a small,
sub-circular magnetic low." As with many of the Athabascan
uranium deposits, which tend to be found between overlying
sedimentary units and underlying basement rocks, the Davy Lake
conductor fits the bill. Strathmore Mineral's president, David
Miller, told StockInterview.com, "the 50-plus kilometer
geophysical anomaly appears to indicate a basement conductor."
However, Mr. Miller tempered the exhilaration in the air, "A
geophysical anomaly does not make an ore body. These exciting
initial results will be followed up with infill geophysical
lines, followed by ground geophysics, followed by shallow
drilling, looking for alteration. When we have narrowed the
target to drill, we will pull in the big rigs and test the
conductor at the unconformity." Dahrouge remains excited about
the Davy Lake conductor, and said, "Clearly this represents an
excellent exploration target for unconformity type uranium
deposits.
What does all that mean? It could explain why Strathmore
Minerals might well be on the road to a world-class uranium
discovery as further exploration more clearly defines how
valuable those newly discovered conductors might become.
Meanwhile, Strathmore's New Mexico and Wyoming properties
(amounting to potentially several million pounds of uranium
resource) are in the preparatory phase of the permitting
process. As the spot uranium price inches forward to the widely
accepted short-term target above $40/pound, several of
Strathmore Mineral's properties may become instantly more
valuable to a utility company who will someday need the
company's uranium oxide to fuel their nuclear reactor.
About the author:
James Finch regularly contributes to StockInterview.com, which
is found at http://www.stockinterview.com. Mr. Finch holds no
equity positions in any of the stocks featured in his articles.
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