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Brain-dead Mutual Fund Selection
About this time every year, the personal finance magazines will
perform an annual ritual: Looking at how mutual funds have
performed over the past year--and then using that information to
suggest which mutual funds you should pick for the coming...
Economic Survival in the 21st Century - the Three Key Questions to ask
In this “special report”, I want to pose a few important “philosophical questions” to my readers. Firstly -- our Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, addressed the effects and implications of our aging population on things such as Social...
Health Insurance for the Self-Employed - Protecting Your Business's Greatest Asset
Health Insurance for the Self-Employed - Protecting Your Business's Greatest Asset © 2002 Elena Fawkner "I've been considering quitting my full-time job and getting a part-time job that would pay the bills [so I can start a home business] ......
How Do You Rank in The Investing Hierarchy?
Copyright 2011 CashFlow Avenue
You probably have heard this saying before - "It is lonely at
the top." If you find yourself in this position, then you are
probably at the top of your own niche. Our society is made of
hierarchies. Most...
VIX and the Psychology of Markets
VIX and the Psychology of Markets
We know that greed and fear rule the markets. But did you know
that when investors gets too greedy, markets usually fall, and
when investors are overcome with fear, markets usually rise. So
how can when we...
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Santa Claus Rally: Is a Year-End Stock Recovery Coming to Town?
Now that we are in the holiday season, you will be hearing more
about the so-called "Santa Claus Rally." It is a well-known
phenomenon, first discovered by Yale Hirsch and published in his
Stock Trader's Almanac. During this year-end rally, stocks tend
to advance, sometimes sharply, from the day after Christmas to
the first two days after New Year's Day.
But now, just as the retailers have extended the Christmas
shopping season to Halloween, the Santa Claus Rally has been
extended by traders to cover the final two to three months of
the year.
At Investment U, we want to answer three questions:
Is the Santa Claus Rally real? Can it be confirmed historically?
What is the cause of this year-end stock rally? Most
importantly, will we see a Santa Claus Rally this December? I've
done a great deal of research on this topic, and here are my
answers...
First, is the Santa Claus Rally historically factual? The answer
is yes. In terms of the original Santa Claus Rally, 65% of the
time (going back 100 years), stocks have advanced during the
week following Christmas Day, and have done better than December
as a whole.
In the past eight years, November and December have been
extremely bullish. Even during the bear markets, 2000-2003,
stocks rallied in the final two months. Looking at a chart of
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and you would notice the steep
run-ups just before the annual vertical lines.
Analysts suggest several factors that drive the Santa Claus
Rally:
The end of tax-loss selling. A tendency for investors
to fund
IRAs and 401(k)s at the start of a new year. Financial
institutions and mutual funds seeking to be fully invested for
the New Year. Upbeat year-end stock forecasts for a good January
(the January Effect).
So, will we see a Santa Claus this year? Since October 1, the
Dow is already up 7%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up 15%. Here are
five good reasons why I believe we could see a continuation of
this stock rally:
The Fed may postpone raising rates. According to the minutes of
the most recent meeting, November 1, some board members oppose
further hikes in the Fed Funds Target Rate. Pressure is mounting
for the Fed to ease, especially with gas and oil prices down
from their highs in September.
The Fed is pumping new liquidity into the banking system. M2,
the broadest definition of the money supply, is now growing at a
7% rate, the fastest this year.
Corporate earnings are strong.
CPI inflation is likely to ease, following a sharp drop in
gasoline prices.
Long-term interest rates have fallen back under 4.5%.
In sum, it's time to stuff your Christmas stocking with stocks
and join the holiday merriment.
About the author:
Dr. Mark Skousen is a professional economist, financial advisor,
university professor, author of over 20 books, and
Chairman/Editor of Investment U. In the IU e-Letter, Dr. Skousen
helps nearly 300,000 readers become better investors with
actionable investment advice, including the Santa
Claus Rally article above
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